Thursday, February 2, 2017

My Two Cents

The recent events have riled me up. With time, the situation has been aggravated to the level of a revolution. With so many loud voices, it is difficult to hear anything. We are seeing our basic freedoms stripped away one by one. The helplessness is crushing. In an effort to vent the frustration and to make a positive contribution, I'll convey my inference of the situation, followed by some ideas on creating a better world for all.

 

How did we get here?

Superficially, it was a year of bad decision making. Now we are trying to correct this while others who disagree fight us with words, and their authority. But why does this keep happening? Is left the only one right? That, I don't concur with. Instead, I think it is a systemic issue, unlikely to go away with the more popular methods, like protests.

Capitalism by itself promotes individual interest. Competition is good. Using resources at your disposal to generate more resources for oneself is expected. Time is money. Capitalism is based in the principals of equal opportunity and free market. But, it promotes inequality. In a capitalist state, if there are less opportunities than people then it stands to reason that qualified members should try to create a story favorable to them. 

For example, comparing 'no typing skill' vs 'typing skills' for an office clerk is easy since one pertains to the job requirements. On the other hand, 'typing skills and purple eyes' and 'typing skills' should be the same in the context. Yet, if enough participants believe the story the additional point becomes necessary. Moreover, humans are naturally disposed towards making decisions based on the spurious additional information. Look at Dan Ariely's work for more on this - how we are predictably irrational.
  
The same agents that form the Capitalist society have an incentive to change the rules if they stand to lose by them. Hacking the system by using authority for unfair advantage yields advantage in an initially fair setting. If there is also a first mover advantage (I think there is), this become quite akin to a national prisoner's dilemma played out over generations. Historically, rulers modifying rules has been a classical strategy to retain authority - hence the resources. Lobbying and political power both serve the same purpose.

Don't be fooled though. This goes the other way too, where the oppressed present their own version that may be equally . Which brings me to Evidence Bias. We tend to form coherent narratives considering only the information available to us. As functional creatures that evolved over billions of years, we needed to make a lot of decisions based on limited information. This is flawed though. We are mostly unable to take into account that 'what you see is not all there is!!" 
Consider - "Dude, Biden is such a dick. Just passed by without saying hi."
Then consider this side - "Oh man, Barack didn't even look at me. He must be busy."

Bad example? Maybe. It had to be relatable. Another would be how everyone in a group project thinks they did the most work. We are seeing this happen everywhere. Fear of immigrants, fear of religion, fear of oppression, all of them. Fear and anxiety are easy to spread. Which makes sense. If there is really something to be afraid of, you'll be better off being afraid and protecting yourself, instead of other strategies like experimenting or talking with your bane. Alas! we use the same strategies against other humans. Human evolution is a bloody history of recurrent wars and one-up-manship. And without a well-thought out plan, I see it difficult to synchronize independent players to act in common interest.

Where do we go now?

Instinctively, inactivity has always seemed wrong. The urgency to keep moving, to not falter, is the driving force in my life. Yet, looking at the results from the past, one would rarely find successful leaders with makeshift plans. Big gears can be turned dexterously with a lot of small ones working in-tandem. We prefer quick and dirty - not kidding. Which is why I am learning patience, and repeatedly falling short. Quite curious though, when we focus on something - a hobby, a song, a concept, etc, we start seeing it superimposed over our myriad surroundings. It'd be there in the news, your colleagues start talking about it, facebook ads start popping up. Suddenly, there is a flood where there was nothing. 

To me, it appears this phenomena combines Priming Effect and Evidence Bias. Priming effect can be defined as the correlation between your mental model of entities. The widely regarded Hebbian Theory - "Neurons that wire together, fire together" - seems to explain it. The concepts and stereotypes can get fixed in our heads without our knowledge or intention. So, thinking about old age can make you slow, on average. And if you hate old people or the concept of old age, you might actually become faster. This happens without notice, as experimentally tested. This translates into a bias towards our own beliefs.

This inherent gullibility is debilitating. And it seems like a bad idea to wait when things are falling apart incredibly fast. But running around emphatically without a map is hardly optimal, if a solution at all. We may have stopped and asked ourselves how did we get here, but did we try to find the facts. Not alternative facts. Not selective information that fits our beliefs. The ground truth. I, personally, would prefer to understand better. 

I see a systemic collision between ideas. The left and right have alienated each other, digressing into a constant undercurrent of patronizing and vilification. This culture of 'us' and 'them', the inherited segregation just changes colors. Without an underlying unifying structure, a for-profit setup keep capital gains on a pedestal. The narrative of fairness is wild among liberals while conservatives see it as an intrusion on their rights. Based on experience, such narratives would merge and come to an understanding only with intention from either side. A mutual letting down of guards.


As we have trained our hunter gatherer brains to live in a brick and polymer forest with millions of others, we can also learn to widen our horizons further. We need to learn about ourselves. Conflicts, rallies, hate speech, all seem to divide. But there have to be winners and losers in wars. The next generations need counsel to watch for our pitfalls, so that they understand the world better than we do. They'll have problems of their own, most of them unimaginable to me right now. They'll need skills to handle those - earth swiveling towards uninhabitable, lack of resources, managing expectations in face of momentous challenges. 

Conclusions

Some example of patience should have been evident. However, not to my surprise, I find more examples of snappy retorts and last laugh wannabes, and hardly any otherwise. I find the tendency to want the punchline yet grumble on a retort concisely covers quite prevalent. This isn't just a time to fight. Our systems need the human element back. Not necessarily humans though, but the empathy. An extension of 'us'. First to the humans. All humans. This is important. I airness and reciprocity principles taught through guided experiences in empathy. I need to emphasize that this isn't a new idea. I'm borrowing ideas like 'Vasudev Kutumbakam' - 'All world is a family.' But we have the option to take it further. Can we call the whole planet 'us'?

I try to avoid giving out opinions. By announcing our opinion, we take a stance. The act of speaking itself changes the state of the world. You are putting it out there. Sharing it on social network carries a responsibility towards the people whom it affects. This makes us responsible to clarify the point we made. This, I believe, is the only way an equal society can function. Usual conversations don't include detailed notes about bullet points and it is easy to shatter closely held beliefs. Most people don't like that. Like the saying, "The trouble with good advice is that it usually interferes with our plans." 

I want to add more but that would dilute the point. Let's just end it with the following thought - "I'll take responsibility for the act of writing this blog. You must take responsibility for getting your facts right. We must learn because we are all flawed. We must learn that it is ok to be flawed. However, it's not acceptable to be act thoughtlessly and claim innocence. I'd suggest being humble too, as Aldous Huxley did - "If you can't accept fallibility, you can't learn anything."

Disclaimer - Content here is based on concepts and ideas accumulated over some years, liable to be wrong despite the efforts otherwise. Think for yourself.

tl;dr 

Don't be an asshole. Communicate. Verify what you believe. Think for yourself. Baby Steps.

2 comments:

  1. I have a couple of points to make.
    1. I think the world is essentially cyclic in nature. The Left and the Right are two sides of the same coin, and both must co-exist. And so will the diverging opinions on everything else. For example, as Louis CK points out, the only reason murder is frowned upon is because it's illegal. If you could kill someone and know that there is nothing wrong that you did, would you do it? Heck, this is the way terrorists work. It's a conscious choice to move away from an anarchist society that 'we', as a society, have made so that we can enjoy our sweet cookies and hate our shitty jobs. Maybe Anarchists will rise again when conformity goes out of favour. Not judging though.
    2. Is there any such thing as ground truth? I don't even know how to define something like that. Sure, there are some irrefutable facts in life, I call them physical truths. But everything else, everything in the realm of Humans and their emotions and intentions is not. Everything in that realm is about perception and memory. I often wonder why grievous insults don't look so bad in hindsight. I think that reality is too complex, no single person ever has the ability to fully fathom the true nature of things, and even the sum of all such experience does not qualify to be the ground truth, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. Interesting point, the first one, that things are cyclic. I agree with that but firmly believe that it doesn't have to be so. I imagine it more as an oscillation about a central position that we eventually come to while some new cycle starts. For example, the move from forest to farming, to villages, cities, and empires, all happened over long periods, marked with internal strife and the same cycles.
      Humans advanced beyond the mere limitation of doing our work ourselves. Now, we can also create smart agents quite easily, who are more efficient, less error-prone, and probably more durable; a step above and beyond domesticating animals. This will only get better. Human societies have always been shaped by such tools regardless of what people actually want. I read somewhere about how Mongolian innovations in horseback riding shaped the whole history, so did the guns and cannons, the nuclear bomb even. A new object in the environment, one that adds new degrees of freedom to a system, usually requires a change in strategy.
      I'm not saying 'living in the society and hating your job' is bad. Do that. I for one would recommend that. We need an efficient and predictable framework to keep a society like ours functioning. But when that framework adds smart machines, it may free up human resource. If there aren't enough jobs in that system, you'll have to look elsewhere. What I see is a potential to solve all our major problems with all this freed human time, for those who want. And a more hedonistic yet healthy setting for those who don't care.

      2. I don't believe in ground truth. Reality is complex. That is why we approximate based on our own senses and experiences. I am asking to improve this approximation. Think of humans as machines, with a DNA code that created a neural network and the hormonal system, to interact with environment and propagate the genes (inspired by The Robot's Rebellion). Whatever the emotions are should be within the body. As sophisticated machines that have survived so long, I would prefer to understand human brain better - how to train it to look beyond biases and fears that originally helped groups survive in the jungle. This is a chance to update our ancient education and government machinery that hasn't gotten the fax yet.
      We can finally reach every human on the planet, which has been possible only in the last 100 years. Remarkably fast progress. So, a global society, an 'us', can be formed without demonizing any section of the society, if only we focus on this.
      Finally, I would have preferred not to do anything at all. Like I have always been. But that didn't work out so I'll just have to learn what to do. Not really an absolute truth.

      Delete